MARKET INSIGHT

Another Bearish Signal!

2009-12-07T15:20:00.000-08:00

My indicators, which are primarily a derivation of price action analysis, generated another bearish signal after close of trading today. As I am still bearish from a signal in mid November, this second signal is a strong indication of the upcoming downward pressure that should kick in tomorrow. My best projection is a close in the range of 1093-1095 on Tuesday.

MIDS:                               Bearish
Move Start Date:          11/13
Move Start Price:         1093.50

Have the Tides turned?

2009-12-03T19:02:00.000-08:00

I'm still in my bearish signal...this one is considerably longer than most of my signals, but I see it materializing...starting with the sharp decline in the last 30 mins of today's session.

The daily chart below displays the most likely market move over the next couple of weeks.

MIDS:                         BEARISH
Move Start:              11/13
Move Price:              1093.50

STILL BEARISH!

2009-11-27T05:09:00.000-08:00

My proprietary system still has me in with a bearish signal. I expected the SPX to break below the 1086 level intraday on Wednesday...but it looks like today (Friday) will be the day this happens.

MIDS:                           BEARISH
Move Start:                 11/13
Move Price:                1093.50

Looking for a Move below 1086..

2009-11-23T15:45:00.000-08:00

By Wednesday close of business, I believe the SPX will have broken down below 1086 as an intraday low...if not close price. If it does so decisively, this very well may push the SPX down towards 1060...which is also a measured move from the potential head and shoulders that is forming.

If the market does not drop below 1086 by Wednesday, my system will have me out of this current move.

Below is a 60min SPX chart. We may see a drop toward Friday's close (1091 range) tomorrow...with another move down on Wednesday...albeit on low volume due to the upcoming holiday.

MIDS:                         BEARISH
Move Start:               11/13
Move Price:               1093.50

Bearish going into Turkey Day week

2009-11-22T18:20:00.000-08:00

Still Bearish going into this week...I expect this move down to end either Wednesday or Friday of this week.

MIDS:                         BEARISH
Move Start:              11/13
Move Price:              1093.50

First Leg Down

2009-11-19T16:35:00.000-08:00

As projected, SPX was down approximately 15 today. One thing of note...I actually jumped on this down move too early. My system had me going in after close of trading on Tuesday...in the vicinity of 1110. I decided to jump in early last Friday (close) at 1093 as I anticipated a BEARISH signal in my MIDS system. To discipline yourself to a system that you know will generate signicant profits...while setting aside your emotional instincts...is one of the most difficult things every investor has to deal with. In any event, I see the next day or two potentially being quiet, with a possible retest of 1101, which is the high of the last reaction (see 60 min chart) as well as the midpoint of this current reaction from 1113 to 1088.

I strongly believe the 1088 level will be broken on the down side by Tuesday at the latest.

MIDS:                              BEARISH
Move Start:                  11/13
Move Price:                   1093.50

The Beat Goes On...

2009-11-18T15:53:00.000-08:00

Looking for down action that should be fairly decisive and bottom out by middle to late next week. Next week will mark the 21 week duration since the early July intermediate bottom...this is a very significant Fibonnaci number and is typically very reliable.

MIDS:                          BEARISH
Move Start:                11/13
Move Price:                1093.5

B-E-A-R-I-S-H

2009-11-17T18:39:00.000-08:00

Still strongly bearish. Many others are calling for bullish continuation. I am calling for a big down move either tomorrow, or Thursday. All my analysis is pointing to downward price pressure and a possible push down below 1060 and heading towards even lower level support.

MIDS                             BEARISH
Move Start:                11/13
Move Price:               1093.5

Bulls Are Fighting Strong

2009-11-16T18:36:00.000-08:00

Bulls are really hanging on. Today's strong up move shows a sign of strength I didn't anticipate. My system is based primarily on indecision between bulls and bears...which is where we were at Friday's close of trading From there, I rely on several proprietary price indicators and in depth chart analysis to determine the next short-term direction. I am currently BEARISH and, in most instances, the SPX would have dropped significantly today, but the bulls were simply not ready to step aside...tomorrow is another day.

MIDS:                    BEARISH
Move Date:          11/13
Move Price:         1093.50

New MIDS signal: BEARISH!

2009-11-15T13:28:00.000-08:00

After reviewing my proprietary indicators after Friday's close, and confirming w/ various SPX charts, the Market Insight Directional Status (MIDS) signal is now BEARISH. The first chart below is a daily SPX. There is strong negative divergence between price and Chaiken Money Flow (CMF). The horizontal line in the CMF has historically resulted in significant price drops once touched (from below the line). If the market were to continue with its stubborn bullishness tomorrow, it would not last more than a day or two in my opinion, before starting to decline. The Fibonacci levels are calculated with the start point of the move on the close of the first bull after the July 09' low. 38% retracement level is 1026 and 50% retracement is at 1002. The second chart is a weekly SPX chart. The important thing to note here is the high level of On Balance Volume (OBV)...which only reached this level once in the last five years -- late 07' before the market took a substantial dive.

MIDS:                              BEARISH
Move Start:                   11/13
Move Start Price:       1093.50

Setting Up for Potential Down Move

2009-11-12T19:48:00.000-08:00

This next day or two should be a bit rocky, but I'm still anticipating a down move and a MIDS signal of BEARISH materializing next week. The charts below are 30min, 60 min, and daily SPX. On the 30min chart, you can see today's price pushing below the 20 and 50 SMAs. There is a pretty good chance there could be an intraday move up tomorrow...pulling back towards the strong resistance level at 1101. If the 1101 level holds, we could see the forming of a right shoulder of an H&S pattern on the daily chart (3rd chart below). Support on the 30min lies at 1079 and 1075...and then down around 1061. The 2nd chart is a 60min and also shows strong support around 1060. The 3rd chart is a daily w/ Fibonacci levels if the 1101 level indeed holds. 38 percent retracement would put a downward correction over the next few weeks at 1012.

MIDS: SIDELINES

Directonal Satus: SIDELINES!

2009-11-11T15:48:00.000-08:00

The Market Insight Directional Status (MIDS) has been updated to SIDELINES:

Stats on the last move

In at 1046.5
Out at 1098.5...+52 points

The second doji day came today as I was expecting (although the close was a bit higher than anticipated). I am looking for a trigger Friday or early next week for a change in status (MIDS) to BEARISH. Until then, I am on the sidelines. I don't anticipate much of a move in either direction tomorrow.

MIDS: SIDELINES

Still Bullish

2009-11-10T15:16:00.000-08:00

Still bullish on the current move...although tomorrow I expect the close level to end up farily close to the open. Tomorrow's close range is 1087-1094. With the doji day today, and potentially another one tomorrow, we are setting up for a signficant move later in the week.

MIDS:                            BULLISH
Move Start Date:       Nov-4
Move Start Price:     1046.5

Bullish Day

2009-11-09T19:17:00.000-08:00

The SPX made a nice run up today...decisively breaking through minor resistance areas and closing at the high for the day. The rally that begin last week picked up steam and is still in full force. I estimate tomorrow's close ocurring between 1095 and 1105.

I am going to start posting my Market Insight Directional Status (MIDS) on a daily basis beginning with this post. Each night, the MIDS will be either BULLISH, BEARISH, or SIDELINES. Typically, a bullish or bearish move based on my proprietary signals will last between 3 and 8 business days, with the start price and end price of each move always based on closing market prices.

MIDS:                            BULLISH
Move Start Date        Nov-4
Move Start Price       1046

Below are two daily SPX charts. The first is a short-term daily chart showing a strong move up today...and the second is an intermediate-term daily chart displaying the bullish trend channel from last March to current day:

Keeping an Eye on Early Week Trading

2009-11-08T17:54:00.000-08:00

If, in fact, this short-term rally continues to resemble that of late June, we should see a day or two of fairly light trading before a downturn towards 1010. On the other hand, if we open with high volume and heavy trading activity on the upside, then the rally will continue with an ample amount of strength to push it up past the recent 1101 high and toward 1110. The graph below again shows the daily SPX highlighting the late June and current period trading action (circled).

I'll have a more detailed posting tomorrow after close of business.

Next Few Telling Days

2009-11-05T17:46:00.000-08:00

SPX was up 20 today, as projected. These next few days will be a telling sign of whether the next move will continue north to challenge the 1101 October high, or south to break through the 1029 November low, and 1019 October low. Below is a 60 min SPX chart over the last 3 months. Tomorrow should close within the convergence of the bullish and bearish trend lines, setting up a big move for next week. Strong resistance exists at 1075 and support at 1058. This past week's downward break of the 50 EMA, and subsequent retracement continues to mirror the late June activity...when, after rallying 30 points in 3 days, the SPX treaded water for a few days before beginning a substantial dive of 60 points. My current analysis points to a repeat next week of the activity in June. This would result in a down move towards the 1010 area beginning the middle of next week.

Up day tomorrow!

2009-11-04T15:56:00.000-08:00

Contrary to what many others are saying, I believe we are headed north tomorrow. The late sell off today of 12 points after 2:30 doesn't change my outlook of the next couple of days. As you can see on the chart below, the last 60 min bar penetrated a previous gap, but didn't fill it. In doing so, it appears to have created a temporary short-term trend line that can act as support tomorrow. Resistance will be at 1061 and 1067. First line of support is around 1042 on a down move (which I don't see occurring). Looking for 15-20 point up move closing towards the down trend line from the Oct 21 high.

June 24th All Over Again

2009-11-03T18:50:00.000-08:00

Looking at the below link, notice the areas circled...one in late June and the other encompossing the last few trading days. My proprietary signals are showing remarkable similarity between these periods. The late June rally beginning after two Doji days resulted in approximately +30 points...followed by a decline of 60 or so points. I believe we will seem a similar result now kicking off with the Fed meeting tomorrow and a two/three day rally...followed by a subsequent 60-70 point decline that should bring the market right down to strong support at the 1015 range.